It was eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him over missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were a sign or the reason for the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. After Rogers swept in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
As per Opta, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the force he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential England player.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
